After writing this Market Outlook column for 20 years for TTI MarketEYE, it is time for me to retire.
I thank TTI and all its readers. You may contact me personally at custer@mcn.org, or for business questions my son Jon at jon@custerconsulting.com.
Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth Improves
Business conditions generally improved in late 2020:
- Third-quarter 2020 electronic equipment sales returned to near “break-even” compared to Q3 2019 (chart 21).
- November 2020 world electronic equipment shipments were up 11.4 percent versus November 2019, and up 7.3 percent sequentially compared to October 2020 (chart 2)
- Preliminary combined regional Q4 sales data show a marked upturn versus the third quarter (chart 3)
- Monthly world PCB shipments have likely reached their 2020 seasonal peak (chart 4)
Sources: Regional and company financial data consolidated and analyzed by Custer Consulting
U.S. November Electronic Supply Chain Performance
The U.S. Department of Commerce released its November Durable Goods report with preliminary November order, shipment and inventory data for domestically manufactured goods:
- Electronic equipment book/bill rose to 1.012 (chart 5) as both order and shipment growth continued to rise on a 3/12 growth basis (chart 6)
- On a dollar basis both monthly orders and shipments were strong although their growth appears to have peaked sequentially versus October (chart 7)
- Electronic equipment inventories versus orders are at their lowest level since 2008 (chart 8)
- Defense capital goods shipments increased versus October (chart 9)
- Aircraft shipments remain depressed (chart 10) as their orders were flat versus October (chart 11)
- Communication equipment order and shipment growth is strong (chart 12) and computer gear continues its modest growth (chart 13)
- Semiconductor shipments to North America continue to correct downward toward electronic equipment shipments on a 3/12 growth basis (chart 14)
Chart 15 summarizes the annualized (12/12) and 3-month (3/12) growth of the domestic electronic supply chain.
Sources: www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/index.html and www.semiconductors.org
Japanese Domestic Electronics Production
JEITA released October domestic Japanese electronic equipment production data:
- Electronic equipment production was down 18 percent in August–October 2020 versus the same three months in 2019 (charts 16 & 17)
- Semiconductor shipments to Japan continue to contract (3/12<1) but remain above the 3/12 of domestic electronic equipment growth (chart 18)
- IC production weakened and discrete semiconductor output remained relatively flat (chart 19)
- Passive component production remained strong but was little changed in October versus September (chart 20)
- PCB production rose (chart 21) as its 3/12 growth increased versus September (chart 22)
- Electronic component growth is positive (3/12>1) but component production remains in contraction (chart 23)
Source: www.jeita.or.jp/english/
North America-based Semiconductor Equipment Billings Down Slightly in November
(Chart 24)
North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.61 billion in billings worldwide in November 2020 (three-month average basis), according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 1.4 percent lower than the final October 2020 level of $2.65 billion, and is 23.1 percent higher than the November 2019 billings level of $2.1 billion.
“Billings of North America-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers remain robust, though November shows some expected tapering after billings registered record highs early this fall,” said Ajit Manocha, SEMI president and CEO.
Source: www.semi.org/en/news-media-press/semi-press-releases/nov-2020-north-america-billings-report
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